12/22/2023 0 Comments Will it rain today![]() Advances in weather sensing have made high-resolution radar data–which measures the amount of precipitation at ground level–available at high frequency (e.g., every 5 mins at 1 km resolution). Nowcasting is essential for sectors like water management, agriculture, aviation, emergency planning, and outdoor events. Nowcasting fills the performance gap in this crucial time interval. However, they struggle to generate high-resolution predictions for short lead times under two hours. ![]() By solving physical equations, NWPs provide essential planet-scale predictions several days ahead. Today’s weather predictions are driven by powerful numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. In this evolving book of weather prediction, we now add a story on the role of machine learning for forecasting. Centuries later, Lewis Fry imagined a ‘ Forecast Factory’ that used computation and the physical equations of the atmosphere to predict global weather. Slowly, tables recording seasons and rain patterns started to be kept. Medieval meteorologists began by using the stars to make predictions. Throughout history, the prediction of weather has held a place of importance for our communities and countries. This collaboration between environmental science and AI focuses on value for decision-makers, opening up new avenues for the nowcasting of rain, and points to the opportunities for AI in supporting our response to the challenges of decision-making in an environment under constant change. In a paper written in collaboration with the Met Office and published in Nature, we directly tackle this important grand challenge in weather prediction. Should I take an umbrella? How should we route vehicles experiencing heavy rain? What safety measures do we take for outdoor events? Will there be a flood? Our latest research and state-of-the-art model advances the science of Precipitation Nowcasting, which is the prediction of rain (and other precipitation phenomena) within the next 1-2 hours. Amongst weather phenomena, rain is especially important because of its influence on our everyday decisions. At any moment in the UK, according to one study, one third of the country has talked about the weather in the past hour, reflecting the importance of weather in daily life.
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